pltesim: Simulate Probabilistic Long-Term Effects in Models with Temporal
Calculates and depicts probabilistic long-term effects
in binary models with temporal dependence variables. The package performs
two tasks. First, it calculates the change in the probability of the event
occurring given a change in a theoretical variable. Second, it calculates
the rolling difference in the future probability of the event for two
scenarios: one where the event occurred at a given time and one where the
event does not occur. The package is consistent with the recent movement to
depict meaningful and easy-to-interpret quantities of interest with the
requisite measures of uncertainty. It is the first to make it easy for
researchers to interpret short- and long-term effects of explanatory
variables in binary autoregressive models, which can have important
implications for the correct interpretation of these models.
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